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Al Batin vs Al Tai Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 16:15

Al Batin

PPG 0.75 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al Tai

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-19.2%0-27.8%0-34.4%0-4+2.8%1 1-06.6%1-111.2%1-29.5%1-35.4%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.0%2-16.8%2-25.8%2-33.3%2-4+2.1%3 3-01.6%3-12.8%3-22.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.6% 37.7% 2.65 -16.1%

Draw 27.0% 30.3% 3.30 -6.5%

Away win 45.4% 42.6% 2.35 +6.7%

Over 2.5 59.3% 60.6% 1.65 -2.2%

Over 3.5 33.5% 38.5% 2.60 -12.9%

BTTS 58.8% 66.7% 1.50 -11.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob58.8%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.8%

#4 0–1 9.2%

#5 0–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Batin1.2

Al Tai1.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AL BATIN · PPG 0.75

AL TAI · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Al Batin (H) 27.6%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -16.1%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.5%

Al Tai (A) 45.4%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +6.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Batin face Al Tai in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Batin a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Al Tai 45%, so Al Tai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Al Batin and 1.7 for Al Tai (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Batin are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.50 for Al Tai. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.7%. This match finished 4-1.

Al Batin vs Al Tai Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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