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Al Anwar vs Al Diraiyah Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 18:00

Al Anwar

PPG 1.44 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al Diraiyah

PPG 1.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-17.3%0-27.3%0-34.9%0-4+4.0%1 1-04.7%1-19.5%1-29.6%1-36.5%1-4+5.2%2 2-03.1%2-16.2%2-26.2%2-34.2%2-4+3.4%3 3-01.3%3-12.7%3-22.7%3-31.8%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.6% 13.3% 7.50 +59.7%

Draw 26.0% 22.2% 4.50 +10.2%

Away win 47.4% 74.1% 1.35 -36.0%

Over 2.5 60.2% 69.4% 1.44 -13.3%

Over 3.5 42.5% 47.6% 2.10 -10.8%

BTTS 58.8% 62.5% 1.60 -5.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob58.8%

A 47% / xG 1.3-2.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 7.3%

#4 1–3 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Anwar1.3

Al Diraiyah2.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 42.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ANWAR · PPG 1.44

AL DIRAIYAH · PPG 1.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.44) vs Away GOOD (1.81)

Win probability 1X2

Al Anwar (H) 26.6%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +59.7%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +10.2%

Al Diraiyah (A) 47.4%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -36.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Anwar face Al Diraiyah in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Anwar a 27% chance, the draw 26% and Al Diraiyah 47%, so Al Diraiyah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Al Anwar and 2.0 for Al Diraiyah (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Anwar are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.81 for Al Diraiyah. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +59.7%. This match finished 4-2.

Al Anwar vs Al Diraiyah Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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