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Al Diraiyah vs Al Bukayriyah Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Regular Season - 34 ·Thursday, May 14, 2026, 18:00

Al Diraiyah

PPG 2.50 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al Bukayriyah

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-13.9%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.7%1-18.7%1-23.5%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.9%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.8%3-17.1%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.2%4+-16.6%4+-22.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.3% 89.3% 1.12 -33.6%

Draw 22.5% 15.6% 6.40 +26.4%

Away win 18.2% 5.3% 19.00 +147.5%

Over 2.5 59.4% 74.1% 1.35 -19.8%

Over 3.5 35.9% 54.1% 1.85 -33.6%

BTTS 52.1% 46.5% 2.15 +12.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.1%

H 59% / xG 2.2-0.8 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.9%

#2 1–1 8.7%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 3–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Diraiyah2.2

Al Bukayriyah0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 35.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AL DIRAIYAH · PPG 2.50

AL BUKAYRIYAH · PPG 1.25

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=59.3%

Win probability 1X2

Al Diraiyah (H) 59.3%

ODDS 1.12 · IMPLIED 89.3% EV -33.6%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +26.4%

Al Bukayriyah (A) 18.2%

ODDS 19.00 · IMPLIED 5.3% EV +147.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Diraiyah face Al Bukayriyah in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Diraiyah a 59% chance, the draw 23% and Al Bukayriyah 18%, so Al Diraiyah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Al Diraiyah and 0.8 for Al Bukayriyah (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Diraiyah are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.25 for Al Bukayriyah. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +147.5%. This match finished 3-2.

Al Diraiyah vs Al Bukayriyah Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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