Today / Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 / Al Bukayriyah vs Al Faisaly

Al Bukayriyah vs Al Faisaly Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 18:00

Al Bukayriyah

PPG 1.44 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Al Faisaly

PPG 2.19 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-111.7%0-210.4%0-36.2%0-4+4.1%1 1-06.2%1-111.0%1-29.8%1-35.8%1-4+3.9%2 2-02.9%2-15.2%2-24.6%2-32.7%2-4+1.8%3 3-00.9%3-11.6%3-21.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.8% 12.9% 7.75 +46.0%

Draw 25.2% 23.8% 4.20 +3.5%

Away win 52.0% 73.5% 1.36 -29.3%

Over 2.5 53.1% 57.8% 1.73 -8.1%

Over 3.5 29.1% 35.7% 2.80 -11.1%

BTTS 53.4% 51.8% 1.93 +3.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob53.4%

A 52% / xG 0.9-1.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 0–2✓ 10.4%

#3 0–1 11.7%

#4 1–2 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Bukayriyah0.9

Al Faisaly1.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 29.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AL BUKAYRIYAH · PPG 1.44

AL FAISALY · PPG 2.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.19) vs Home AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Al Bukayriyah (H) 22.8%

ODDS 7.75 · IMPLIED 12.9% EV +46.0%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +3.5%

Al Faisaly (A) 52.0%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -29.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Bukayriyah face Al Faisaly in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Bukayriyah a 23% chance, the draw 25% and Al Faisaly 52%, so Al Faisaly are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Al Bukayriyah and 1.8 for Al Faisaly (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Bukayriyah are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 2.19 for Al Faisaly. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +46.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Al Bukayriyah vs Al Faisaly Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 Predictions