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Al Faisaly vs Al Batin Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Regular Season - 34 ·Thursday, May 14, 2026, 18:00

Al Faisaly

PPG 1.81 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Al Batin

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.4% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-12.5%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.5%1-16.7%1-23.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.1%2-19.0%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.0%3-18.0%3-23.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-011.6%4+-110.3%4+-24.6%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.4% 83.3% 1.20 -22.7%

Draw 21.6% 19.0% 5.25 +8.0%

Away win 14.0% 7.7% 13.00 +49.2%

Over 2.5 63.3% 73.5% 1.36 -13.9%

Over 3.5 47.9% 54.1% 1.85 -11.4%

BTTS 54.4% 57.8% 1.73 -5.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.4%

H 64% / xG 2.7-0.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.1%

#2 3–0 9.0%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 1–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Faisaly2.7

Al Batin0.9

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AL FAISALY · PPG 1.81

AL BATIN · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.81) vs P(Home)=64.4%

Win probability 1X2

Al Faisaly (H) 64.4%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -22.7%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +8.0%

Al Batin (A) 14.0%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +49.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Faisaly face Al Batin in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Thursday, May 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Faisaly a 64% chance, the draw 22% and Al Batin 14%, so Al Faisaly are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Al Faisaly and 0.9 for Al Batin (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Faisaly are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 0.44 for Al Batin. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +49.2%. This match finished 4-0.

Al Faisaly vs Al Batin Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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