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Struga vs Tikves Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Monday, April 13, 2026

Struga

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tikves

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-14.6%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.7%1-19.5%1-24.3%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.1%2-19.9%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.6%3-16.8%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-15.7%4+-22.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.6% 69.4% 1.44 -7.0%

Draw 20.1% 23.8% 4.20 -15.6%

Away win 15.2% 18.2% 5.50 -16.4%

Over 2.5 56.9% — — —

Over 3.5 34.5% — — —

BTTS 51.7% 51.3% 1.95 +0.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 6.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.7%

H 65% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.1%

#2 1–0 10.7%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Struga2.1

Tikves0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.9% · O3.5 PROB 34.5%

Form & verdict PPG

STRUGA · PPG 2.00

TIKVES · PPG 1.42

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.42)

Win probability 1X2

Struga (H) 64.6%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -7.0%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -15.6%

Tikves (A) 15.2%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -16.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Struga face Tikves in Macedonia - First League on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Struga a 65% chance, the draw 20% and Tikves 15%, so Struga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Struga and 0.9 for Tikves (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Struga are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.42 for Tikves. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +0.8%.

Struga vs Tikves Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Macedonia - First League Predictions