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Makedonija vs Tikves Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Matchday 31 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 14:00

Makedonija

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDW

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Tikves

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 57% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-18.5%0-26.9%0-33.7%0-4+2.2%1 1-06.9%1-111.3%1-29.1%1-34.9%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.6%2-17.5%2-26.1%2-33.3%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.0%3-13.3%3-22.7%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.3% 40.0% 2.50 -14.2%

Draw 25.2% 30.3% 3.30 -10.1%

Away win 40.5% 39.2% 2.55 +3.3%

Over 2.5 59.3% 55.6% 1.80 +6.7%

Over 3.5 34.2% 33.3% 3.00 +2.6%

BTTS 58.8% 61.7% 1.62 -4.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -20.7%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob58.8%

A 40% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–1 7.5%

#4 0–0 5.2%

#5 0–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Makedonija1.3

Tikves1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MAKEDONIJA · PPG 1.36

TIKVES · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

57%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.36), Away AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Makedonija (H) 34.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -14.2%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.1%

Tikves (A) 40.5%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Makedonija face Tikves in Macedonia - First League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Makedonija a 34% chance, the draw 25% and Tikves 41%, so Tikves are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Makedonija and 1.6 for Tikves (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Makedonija are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.43 for Tikves. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.7%. This match finished 1-4.

Makedonija vs Tikves Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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