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Sileks vs Aresimi Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Regular Season - 32 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 14:00

Sileks

PPG 1.88 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Aresimi

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-14.1%0-22.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.8%1-19.0%1-24.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.7%2-19.9%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.1%3-17.2%3-23.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-16.6%4+-23.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% — — —

Draw 24.4% — — —

Away win 22.3% — — —

Over 2.5 60.1% — — —

Over 3.5 40.0% — — —

BTTS 55.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 6.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.0%

H 53% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 3–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sileks2.2

Aresimi1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SILEKS · PPG 1.88

ARESIMI · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.88) > Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Sileks (H) 53.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Aresimi (A) 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sileks face Aresimi in Macedonia - First League on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sileks a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Aresimi 22%, so Sileks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Sileks and 1.0 for Aresimi (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sileks are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.13 for Aresimi. This match finished 0-1.

Sileks vs Aresimi Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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