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Aresimi vs Bashkimi Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Regular Season - 31 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 14:00

Aresimi

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Bashkimi

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-15.3%0-23.7%0-31.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.0%1-19.9%1-27.0%1-33.3%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-19.3%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.1%3-15.8%3-24.1%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.2%4+-22.9%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% 51.3% 1.95 -6.8%

Draw 26.1% 29.0% 3.45 -6.0%

Away win 26.1% 29.4% 3.40 -6.8%

Over 2.5 60.2% 57.8% 1.73 +4.2%

Over 3.5 41.7% 35.7% 2.80 +16.8%

BTTS 58.8% 62.5% 1.60 -5.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 6.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.8%

H 48% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.0%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aresimi1.9

Bashkimi1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.2% · O3.5 PROB 41.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ARESIMI · PPG 1.50

BASHKIMI · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Aresimi (H) 47.8%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -6.8%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -6.0%

Bashkimi (A) 26.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -6.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aresimi face Bashkimi in Macedonia - First League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aresimi a 48% chance, the draw 26% and Bashkimi 26%, so Aresimi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Aresimi and 1.4 for Bashkimi (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aresimi are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.29 for Bashkimi. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Aresimi vs Bashkimi Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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