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Aresimi vs Pelister Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Regular Season - 27 ·Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 11:00

Aresimi

PPG 1.25 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Pelister

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.85)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-15.7%0-23.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.9%1-110.5%1-26.3%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.7%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.0%3-16.0%3-23.6%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-14.2%4+-22.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 36.4% 2.75 +45.2%

Draw 22.8% 31.3% 3.20 -27.0%

Away win 24.5% 43.5% 2.30 -43.6%

Over 2.5 58.5% 50.0% 2.00 +17.0%

Over 3.5 36.1% — — —

BTTS 58.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 6.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.6%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–0✓ 8.9%

#4 2–0 8.2%

#5 1–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aresimi1.8

Pelister1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ARESIMI · PPG 1.25

PELISTER · PPG 0.85

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.85)

Win probability 1X2

Aresimi (H) 52.8%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +45.2%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -27.0%

Pelister (A) 24.5%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -43.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aresimi face Pelister in Macedonia - First League on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aresimi a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Pelister 25%, so Aresimi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Aresimi and 1.2 for Pelister (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aresimi are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.85 for Pelister. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +45.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Aresimi vs Pelister Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Macedonia - First League Predictions