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Alashkert vs Ararat Yerevan Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Armenia - Premier League Tuesday, April 14, 2026 11:00
Alashkert PPG 1.90
VS PENDING
Ararat Yerevan PPG 0.40
Over3.5· +88.8% ✓ SOLID - Strong home form
95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Alashkert face Ararat Yerevan in Armenia - Premier League on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alashkert a 92% chance, the draw 6% and Ararat Yerevan 2%, so Alashkert are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.6 for Alashkert and 0.5 for Ararat Yerevan (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 78% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alashkert are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 0.40 for Ararat Yerevan. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +88.8%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 91.8%
Odds: 1.40 EV: +28.5%
Draw 6.1%
Odds: 4.00 EV: -75.6%
Away 2.1%
Odds: 7.00 EV: -85.3%
Model lean: Home

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 77.9% Odds: 1.85 +44.1%
Over 3.5 59.0% Odds: 3.20 +88.8%
BTTS 37.8% Odds: 2.00 -24.4%

Correct Score Picks

1st 3-0
2nd 4-0
3rd 2-0
4th 5-0
5th 3-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Alashkert
3.63
Ararat Yerevan
0.49

Model Suggestion

Home +28.5% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home.
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+88.8%)

League Track Record

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%
O2.5/Under 47%
BTTS/No 56%
Score Hit 50%
ROI -42.6%
Bet Hit 43% (7 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Strong home form
95%
STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.90), Away POOR (0.40) - Strong consensus

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