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Alashkert vs Ararat Yerevan Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 11:00

Alashkert

PPG 1.90 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ararat Yerevan

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 91.8% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a clear edge.

+28.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-10.8%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.9%1-12.9%1-20.7%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-010.7%2-15.2%2-21.3%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.9%3-16.3%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-030.1%4+-114.8%4+-23.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 91.8% 71.4% 1.40 +28.5%

Draw 6.1% 25.0% 4.00 -75.6%

Away win 2.1% 14.3% 7.00 -85.3%

Over 2.5 77.9% 54.1% 1.85 +44.1%

Over 3.5 59.0% 31.3% 3.20 +88.8%

BTTS 37.8% 50.0% 2.00 -24.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 76%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob37.8%

H 92% / xG 3.6-0.5 / O2.5 78% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 12.9%

#2 4–0 11.7%

#3 2–0 10.7%

#4 5–0 8.5%

#5 3–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alashkert3.6

Ararat Yerevan0.5

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.9% · O3.5 PROB 59.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ALASHKERT · PPG 1.90

ARARAT YEREVAN · PPG 0.40

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.90), Away POOR (0.40) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Alashkert (H) 91.8%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV +28.5%

Draw 6.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -75.6%

Ararat Yerevan (A) 2.1%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV -85.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alashkert face Ararat Yerevan in Armenia - Premier League on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alashkert a 92% chance, the draw 6% and Ararat Yerevan 2%, so Alashkert are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.6 for Alashkert and 0.5 for Ararat Yerevan (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 78% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alashkert are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 0.40 for Ararat Yerevan. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +88.8%.

Alashkert vs Ararat Yerevan Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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