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Ararat Yerevan vs BKMA Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Regular Season - 27 ·Tuesday, May 26, 2026, 15:00

Ararat Yerevan

PPG 0.42 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

BKMA

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-111.6%0-29.1%0-34.8%0-4+2.7%1 1-07.6%1-112.0%1-29.4%1-35.0%1-4+2.8%2 2-03.9%2-16.2%2-24.9%2-32.6%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.4%3-12.1%3-21.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.3% 44.4% 2.25 -21.8%

Draw 26.4% 29.9% 3.35 -6.9%

Away win 45.3% 35.7% 2.80 +26.8%

Over 2.5 52.6% 54.1% 1.85 -2.7%

Over 3.5 26.6% 31.3% 3.20 -8.9%

BTTS 52.5% 59.9% 1.67 -12.3%

Home O1.5 27.6% 46.5% 2.15 -24.4%

Away O1.5 46.8% 40.0% 2.50 +17.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob52.5%

A 45% / xG 1.0-1.6 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.0%

#2 0–1 11.6%

#3 1–2 9.4%

#4 0–0 7.4%

#5 0–2 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ararat Yerevan1.0

BKMA1.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 26.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ARARAT YEREVAN · PPG 0.42

BKMA · PPG 0.75

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.42) vs Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Ararat Yerevan (H) 28.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -21.8%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -6.9%

BKMA (A) 45.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +26.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ararat Yerevan face BKMA in Armenia - Premier League on Tuesday, May 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ararat Yerevan a 28% chance, the draw 26% and BKMA 45%, so BKMA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Ararat Yerevan and 1.6 for BKMA (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ararat Yerevan are averaging 0.42 points per game versus 0.75 for BKMA. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +26.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Ararat Yerevan vs BKMA Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Armenia - Premier League Predictions