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Gandzasar vs Pyunik Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Regular Season - 26 ·Monday, May 18, 2026, 15:00

Gandzasar

PPG 1.23 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Pyunik

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 54.0% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.6%0-118.7%0-212.8%0-35.9%0-4+2.7%1 1-08.5%1-111.6%1-28.0%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-02.6%2-13.6%2-22.5%2-31.1%2-4+0.5%3 3-00.5%3-10.7%3-20.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.7% 12.5% 8.00 +15.4%

Draw 30.3% 21.7% 4.60 +39.4%

Away win 54.0% 75.2% 1.33 -28.2%

Over 2.5 38.7% 58.8% 1.70 -34.2%

Over 3.5 14.2% 36.4% 2.75 -36.6%

BTTS 46.9% 50.0% 2.00 -6.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob46.9%

A 54% / xG 0.6-1.4 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 18.7%

#2 0–0 13.6%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 0–2✓ 12.8%

#5 1–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gandzasar0.6

Pyunik1.4

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.7% · O3.5 PROB 14.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GANDZASAR · PPG 1.23

PYUNIK · PPG 1.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.23) vs Away GOOD (1.62)

Win probability 1X2

Gandzasar (H) 15.7%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +15.4%

Draw 30.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +39.4%

Pyunik (A) 54.0%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -28.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gandzasar face Pyunik in Armenia - Premier League on Monday, May 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gandzasar a 16% chance, the draw 30% and Pyunik 54%, so Pyunik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Gandzasar and 1.4 for Pyunik (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gandzasar are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 1.62 for Pyunik. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +39.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Gandzasar vs Pyunik Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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