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BKMA vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Regular Season - 26 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 15:00

BKMA

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Ararat-Armenia

PPG 2.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-113.7%0-211.2%0-36.1%0-4+3.6%1 1-07.1%1-111.6%1-29.5%1-35.2%1-4+3.0%2 2-03.0%2-14.9%2-24.0%2-32.2%2-4+1.3%3 3-00.8%3-11.4%3-21.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.2% 11.9% 8.40 +51.9%

Draw 25.3% 20.8% 4.80 +12.9%

Away win 52.5% 78.1% 1.28 -32.8%

Over 2.5 47.6% 61.7% 1.62 -22.9%

Over 3.5 23.9% 40.0% 2.50 -24.1%

BTTS 51.6% 51.8% 1.93 -0.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob51.6%

A 52% / xG 0.8-1.6 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 0–1 13.7%

#3 0–2 11.2%

#4 0–0 8.3%

#5 1–2 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BKMA0.8

Ararat-Armenia1.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BKMA · PPG 1.00

ARARAT-ARMENIA · PPG 2.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.08) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

BKMA (H) 22.2%

ODDS 8.40 · IMPLIED 11.9% EV +51.9%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +12.9%

Ararat-Armenia (A) 52.5%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -32.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

BKMA face Ararat-Armenia in Armenia - Premier League on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BKMA a 22% chance, the draw 25% and Ararat-Armenia 53%, so Ararat-Armenia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for BKMA and 1.6 for Ararat-Armenia (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BKMA are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.08 for Ararat-Armenia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +51.9%. This match finished 2-3.

BKMA vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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