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Noah vs Ararat Yerevan Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Regular Season - 26 ·Tuesday, May 19, 2026, 15:00

Noah

PPG 2.08 · HOME

8 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Ararat Yerevan

PPG 0.54 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 71.6% vs bookmaker-implied 91.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-11.5%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-09.4%1-14.5%1-21.1%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.0%2-16.7%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.8%3-16.7%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-021.3%4+-110.3%4+-22.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.6% 91.7% 1.09 -22.0%

Draw 20.6% 13.5% 7.40 +31.5%

Away win 7.8% 5.0% 20.00 +33.6%

Over 2.5 63.9% 73.5% 1.36 -13.1%

Over 3.5 45.2% 51.8% 1.93 -12.8%

BTTS 48.5% 41.7% 2.40 +16.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 8-3

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.5%

H 72% / xG 3.0-0.5 / O2.5 64% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.0%

#2 3–0 13.8%

#3 4–0 10.3%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Noah3.0

Ararat Yerevan0.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 45.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NOAH · PPG 2.08

ARARAT YEREVAN · PPG 0.54

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.08), Away POOR (0.54) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Noah (H) 71.6%

ODDS 1.09 · IMPLIED 91.7% EV -22.0%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 7.40 · IMPLIED 13.5% EV +31.5%

Ararat Yerevan (A) 7.8%

ODDS 20.00 · IMPLIED 5.0% EV +33.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Noah face Ararat Yerevan in Armenia - Premier League on Tuesday, May 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Noah a 72% chance, the draw 21% and Ararat Yerevan 8%, so Noah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Noah and 0.5 for Ararat Yerevan (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Noah are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 0.54 for Ararat Yerevan. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +33.6%. This match finished 8-3.

Noah vs Ararat Yerevan Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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