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Alashkert vs Shirak Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Regular Season - 27 ·Tuesday, May 26, 2026, 15:00

Alashkert

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Shirak

PPG 0.31 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 66.8% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-13.8%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.6%1-17.9%1-22.0%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.2%2-18.3%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.3%3-15.7%3-21.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-09.5%4+-14.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.8% 80.0% 1.25 -16.5%

Draw 24.1% 21.1% 4.75 +8.7%

Away win 9.2% 9.1% 11.00 +0.7%

Over 2.5 52.0% 58.8% 1.70 -11.6%

Over 3.5 26.2% 37.0% 2.70 -17.6%

BTTS 46.3% 46.5% 2.15 -0.4%

Home O1.5 61.5% 72.5% 1.38 -15.1%

Away O1.5 9.3% 16.7% 6.00 -26.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.3%

H 67% / xG 2.1-0.5 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 16.2%

#2 1–0 15.6%

#3 3–0 11.3%

#4 1–1 7.9%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alashkert2.1

Shirak0.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.0% · O3.5 PROB 26.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ALASHKERT · PPG 2.00

SHIRAK · PPG 0.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.31) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Alashkert (H) 66.8%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -16.5%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +8.7%

Shirak (A) 9.2%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alashkert face Shirak in Armenia - Premier League on Tuesday, May 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alashkert a 67% chance, the draw 24% and Shirak 9%, so Alashkert are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Alashkert and 0.5 for Shirak (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alashkert are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.31 for Shirak. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +8.7%. This match finished 2-0.

Alashkert vs Shirak Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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