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Ararat-Armenia vs Gandzasar Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Regular Season - 27 ·Wednesday, May 27, 2026, 15:00

Ararat-Armenia

PPG 2.25 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Gandzasar

PPG 0.42 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 70.6% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-12.8%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.7%1-16.8%1-22.0%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.4%2-18.4%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.8%3-16.9%3-22.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-013.1%4+-17.6%4+-22.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.1% 87.0% 1.15 -21.7%

Draw 22.7% 16.7% 6.00 +21.7%

Away win 9.2% 7.1% 14.00 +17.3%

Over 2.5 59.1% 72.5% 1.38 -18.4%

Over 3.5 36.4% 51.3% 1.95 -29.0%

BTTS 48.6% 52.4% 1.91 -7.2%

Home O1.5 70.6% 83.3% 1.20 -15.3%

Away O1.5 11.6% 19.0% 5.25 -23.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.6%

H 68% / xG 2.5-0.6 / O2.5 59% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.4%

#2 3–0 11.8%

#3 1–0✓ 11.7%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 1–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ararat-Armenia2.5

Gandzasar0.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ARARAT-ARMENIA · PPG 2.25

GANDZASAR · PPG 0.42

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.25), Away POOR (0.42) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Ararat-Armenia (H) 68.1%

ODDS 1.15 · IMPLIED 87.0% EV -21.7%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +21.7%

Gandzasar (A) 9.2%

ODDS 14.00 · IMPLIED 7.1% EV +17.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ararat-Armenia face Gandzasar in Armenia - Premier League on Wednesday, May 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ararat-Armenia a 68% chance, the draw 23% and Gandzasar 9%, so Ararat-Armenia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Ararat-Armenia and 0.6 for Gandzasar (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ararat-Armenia are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.42 for Gandzasar. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +21.7%. This match finished 1-0.

Ararat-Armenia vs Gandzasar Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Armenia - Premier League Predictions