Tondela vs Gil Vicente Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Portugal - Primeira Liga Regular Season - 29 Estádio João Cardoso· Tondela Monday, April 13, 2026 —

Tondela PPG 0.64

VS PENDING

Gil Vicente PPG 1.29

Away· +13.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Tondela face Gil Vicente in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tondela a 16% chance, the draw 26% and Gil Vicente 58%, so Gil Vicente are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Tondela and 1.5 for Gil Vicente (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tondela are averaging 0.64 points per game versus 1.29 for Gil Vicente. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.5%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 16.0%

Odds: 3.90 EV: -37.6%

Draw 26.2%

Odds: 3.30 EV: -13.5%

Away 57.9%

Odds: 1.96 EV: +13.5%

Model lean: Away

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 36.1% Odds: 2.25 -18.8%

Over 3.5 16.9% Odds: 4.20 -29.0%

BTTS 36.9% Odds: 1.95 -28.0%

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-1

2nd 0-2

3rd 0-0

4th 1-1

5th 1-2

Expected Goals (xG)

Tondela

0.65

Gil Vicente

1.50

Model SuggestionAway +13.5% ROI TRACKS: Away
Tracked ROI market: Away. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5/Under 57%

BTTS/No 47%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -4.3%

Bet Hit 50% (18 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.29) vs Home POOR (0.64)