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Tondela vs Gil Vicente Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Regular Season - 29 ·Monday, April 13, 2026

Tondela

PPG 0.64 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gil Vicente

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 57.9% vs bookmaker-implied 51.0% — a clear edge.

+13.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-117.6%0-213.1%0-36.6%0-4+3.4%1 1-07.6%1-111.3%1-28.5%1-34.2%1-4+2.2%2 2-02.4%2-13.7%2-22.7%2-31.4%2-4+0.7%3 3-00.5%3-10.8%3-20.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.0% 25.6% 3.90 -37.6%

Draw 26.2% 30.3% 3.30 -13.5%

Away win 57.9% 51.0% 1.96 +13.5%

Over 2.5 36.1% 44.4% 2.25 -18.8%

Over 3.5 16.9% 23.8% 4.20 -29.0%

BTTS 36.9% 51.3% 1.95 -28.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -23.2%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob36.9%

A 58% / xG 0.6-1.5 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 37%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.6%

#2 0–2 13.1%

#3 0–0 11.8%

#4 1–1 11.3%

#5 1–2 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tondela0.6

Gil Vicente1.5

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.1% · O3.5 PROB 16.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TONDELA · PPG 0.64

GIL VICENTE · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.29) vs Home POOR (0.64)

Win probability 1X2

Tondela (H) 16.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -37.6%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -13.5%

Gil Vicente (A) 57.9%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV +13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tondela face Gil Vicente in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tondela a 16% chance, the draw 26% and Gil Vicente 58%, so Gil Vicente are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Tondela and 1.5 for Gil Vicente (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tondela are averaging 0.64 points per game versus 1.29 for Gil Vicente. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.5%.

Tondela vs Gil Vicente Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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