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Famalicao vs Alverca Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 19:30

Famalicao

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Alverca

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDL

// Model verdict

Home 60% chance

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-17.3%0-22.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.8%1-111.5%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-19.0%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.5%3-14.7%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-12.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 63.3% 1.58 -17.2%

Draw 25.8% 25.0% 4.00 +1.9%

Away win 21.8% 18.5% 5.40 +10.6%

Over 2.5 46.4% 59.9% 1.67 -22.5%

Over 3.5 20.0% 37.7% 2.65 -28.2%

BTTS 48.6% 59.9% 1.67 -18.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.6%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 15.8%

#2 1–1 11.5%

#3 2–0 12.4%

#4 0–0 10.0%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Famalicao1.6

Alverca0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.4% · O3.5 PROB 20.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FAMALICAO · PPG 1.75

ALVERCA · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

60%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=52.4%

Win probability 1X2

Famalicao (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.58 · IMPLIED 63.3% EV -17.2%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +1.9%

Alverca (A) 21.8%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +10.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Famalicao face Alverca in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Famalicao a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Alverca 22%, so Famalicao are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Famalicao and 0.7 for Alverca (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Famalicao are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.81 for Alverca. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Famalicao vs Alverca Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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