Famalicao vs Alverca Prediction & Tips

Portugal - Primeira Liga Regular Season - 34 Estadio Municipal de Famalicao· Vila Nova de Famalicao Saturday, May 16, 2026 19:30

Famalicao PPG 1.75

1-0 HIT MostLikelyScore

Alverca PPG 0.81

Away· +10.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 52.4%

Odds: 1.58 EV: -17.2%

Draw 25.8%

Odds: 4.00 EV: +1.9%

Away 21.8%

Odds: 5.40 EV: +10.6%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 46.4% Odds: 1.67 -22.5%

Over 3.5 20.0% Odds: 2.65 -28.2%

BTTS 48.6% Odds: 1.67 -18.8%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✔

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Famalicao

1.57

Alverca

0.73

Model SuggestionHome -17.2% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -17.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+10.6%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=52.4%