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Moreirense vs AVS Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 14:30

Moreirense

PPG 1.63 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

AVS

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWD

// Model verdict

Home 55% chance

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-16.1%0-22.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.5%1-110.9%1-24.8%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.1%2-19.8%2-24.3%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.6%3-15.8%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-13.9%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 55.2% 1.81 -4.1%

Draw 24.9% 27.4% 3.65 -5.5%

Away win 22.0% 24.4% 4.10 -5.9%

Over 2.5 52.6% 54.6% 1.83 -3.7%

Over 3.5 27.8% 33.3% 3.00 -10.0%

BTTS 51.6% 57.8% 1.73 -10.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.6%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–0 11.1%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0✓ 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Moreirense1.8

AVS0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MOREIRENSE · PPG 1.63

AVS · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.63) vs P(Home)=53.0%

Win probability 1X2

Moreirense (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV -4.1%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -5.5%

AVS (A) 22.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Moreirense face AVS in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Moreirense a 53% chance, the draw 25% and AVS 22%, so Moreirense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Moreirense and 0.9 for AVS (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Moreirense are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 0.50 for AVS. This match finished 0-0.

Moreirense vs AVS Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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