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FC Porto vs Santa Clara Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 14:30

FC Porto

PPG 2.63 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Santa Clara

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWL

// Model verdict

Home 71% chance

Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 74.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-15.0%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.1%1-18.9%1-22.2%1-30.4%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.4%2-18.1%2-22.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-09.8%3-14.9%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-13.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.8% 74.6% 1.34 -17.2%

Draw 23.8% 20.0% 5.00 +11.4%

Away win 14.4% 12.3% 8.10 +10.0%

Over 2.5 46.4% 56.5% 1.77 -17.9%

Over 3.5 20.0% 34.5% 2.90 -25.2%

BTTS 46.2% 47.6% 2.10 -3.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.2%

H 62% / xG 1.8-0.5 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 18.1%

#2 2–0 16.4%

#3 0–0 10.0%

#4 1–1 8.9%

#5 3–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Porto1.8

Santa Clara0.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.4% · O3.5 PROB 20.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FC PORTO · PPG 2.63

SANTA CLARA · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

71%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.63) vs P(Home)=61.8%

Win probability 1X2

FC Porto (H) 61.8%

ODDS 1.34 · IMPLIED 74.6% EV -17.2%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +11.4%

Santa Clara (A) 14.4%

ODDS 8.10 · IMPLIED 12.3% EV +10.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Porto face Santa Clara in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Porto a 62% chance, the draw 24% and Santa Clara 14%, so FC Porto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for FC Porto and 0.5 for Santa Clara (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Porto are averaging 2.63 points per game versus 0.81 for Santa Clara. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +11.4%. This match finished 1-0.

FC Porto vs Santa Clara Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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