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Portugal - Primeira Liga Saturday, May 16, 2026 14:30 
FC Porto PPG 2.63 
Santa Clara PPG 0.81
Portugal - Primeira Liga Saturday, May 16, 2026 14:30 FC Porto PPG 2.631-0 HIT MostLikelyScore
Santa Clara PPG 0.81Draw· +11.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 46.4% Odds: 1.77 -17.9%
Over 3.5 20.0% Odds: 2.90 -25.2%
BTTS 46.2% Odds: 2.10 -3.0%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-0 ✔
2nd 2-0 ✘
3rd 0-0 ✘
4th 1-1 ✘
5th 3-0 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Porto 1.80
Santa Clara 0.49
Model Suggestion
Home -17.2% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -17.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Draw (+11.4%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Draw (+11.4%) — probability too low to qualify.
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 55%
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.63) vs P(Home)=61.8%