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Benfica vs Sporting Braga Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 33 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 19:15

Benfica

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sporting Braga

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-16.4%0-23.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.9%1-111.2%1-25.8%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.8%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.5%3-15.7%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.7%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.4% 70.4% 1.42 -27.0%

Draw 25.0% 22.5% 4.45 +6.8%

Away win 23.6% 13.9% 7.20 +41.9%

Over 2.5 52.3% 59.9% 1.67 -12.7%

Over 3.5 30.3% 37.0% 2.70 -18.2%

BTTS 52.6% 54.6% 1.83 -3.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.6%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Benfica1.7

Sporting Braga1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BENFICA · PPG 2.38

SPORTING BRAGA · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

54%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.38) > Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Benfica (H) 51.4%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV -27.0%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +6.8%

Sporting Braga (A) 23.6%

ODDS 7.20 · IMPLIED 13.9% EV +41.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Benfica face Sporting Braga in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Benfica a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Sporting Braga 24%, so Benfica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Benfica and 1.0 for Sporting Braga (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Benfica are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.75 for Sporting Braga. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +41.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Benfica vs Sporting Braga Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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