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Sporting Braga vs Estrela Amadora Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 17:00

Sporting Braga

PPG 1.81 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDDD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Estrela Amadora

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDD

// Model verdict

Home 60% chance

Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 60.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-14.1%0-21.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.9%1-18.9%1-23.6%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.8%2-19.7%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.6%3-17.0%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.8%4+-16.4%4+-22.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.4% 60.2% 1.66 +0.3%

Draw 21.9% 25.6% 3.90 -8.8%

Away win 17.8% 20.8% 4.80 -8.7%

Over 2.5 59.1% 55.6% 1.80 +6.4%

Over 3.5 35.3% 33.3% 3.00 +5.9%

BTTS 51.6% 56.5% 1.77 -8.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 60% / xG 2.2-0.8 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.8%

#2 1–1 8.9%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 3–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting Braga2.2

Estrela Amadora0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 35.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING BRAGA · PPG 1.81

ESTRELA AMADORA · PPG 0.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

60%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.81) vs P(Home)=60.4%

Win probability 1X2

Sporting Braga (H) 60.4%

ODDS 1.66 · IMPLIED 60.2% EV +0.3%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -8.8%

Estrela Amadora (A) 17.8%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -8.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting Braga face Estrela Amadora in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting Braga a 60% chance, the draw 22% and Estrela Amadora 18%, so Sporting Braga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Sporting Braga and 0.8 for Estrela Amadora (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting Braga are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 0.69 for Estrela Amadora. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.4%. This match finished 2-2.

Sporting Braga vs Estrela Amadora Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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