Estoril vs Benfica Prediction & Tips

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Portugal - Primeira Liga Regular Season - 34 Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota· Estoril Saturday, May 16, 2026 19:30

Estoril PPG 1.44

1-3 HIT CS5

Benfica PPG 2.38

Home· +56.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 21.1%

Odds: 9.20 EV: +56.5%

Draw 24.1%

Odds: 5.10 EV: +13.8%

Away 54.8%

Odds: 1.31 EV: -28.2%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.1% Odds: 1.45 -14.3%

Over 3.5 35.3% Odds: 2.10 -25.9%

BTTS 54.6% Odds: 1.70 -7.2%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 0-2 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 1-3 ✔

Expected Goals (xG)

Estoril

1.01

Benfica

2.00

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -14.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -14.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+56.5%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs Home AVERAGE (1.44)