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Estoril vs Benfica Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 19:30

Estoril

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDDL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Benfica

PPG 2.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 66% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-19.9%0-29.9%0-36.6%0-4+5.2%1 1-05.0%1-110.0%1-210.0%1-36.6%1-4+5.2%2 2-02.5%2-15.0%2-25.0%2-33.3%2-4+2.6%3 3-00.8%3-11.7%3-21.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.1% 10.9% 9.20 +56.5%

Draw 24.1% 19.6% 5.10 +13.8%

Away win 54.8% 76.3% 1.31 -28.2%

Over 2.5 59.1% 69.0% 1.45 -14.3%

Over 3.5 35.3% 47.6% 2.10 -25.9%

BTTS 54.6% 58.8% 1.70 -7.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob54.6%

A 55% / xG 1.0-2.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 1–2 10.0%

#3 0–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 1–3✓ 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Estoril1.0

Benfica2.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 35.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTORIL · PPG 1.44

BENFICA · PPG 2.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs Home AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Estoril (H) 21.1%

ODDS 9.20 · IMPLIED 10.9% EV +56.5%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +13.8%

Benfica (A) 54.8%

ODDS 1.31 · IMPLIED 76.3% EV -28.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Estoril face Benfica in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estoril a 21% chance, the draw 24% and Benfica 55%, so Benfica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Estoril and 2.0 for Benfica (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estoril are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 2.38 for Benfica. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +56.5%. This match finished 1-3.

Estoril vs Benfica Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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