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Nacional vs Guimaraes Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 17:00

Nacional

PPG 1.06 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Guimaraes

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-19.5%0-25.1%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.1%1-112.9%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.2%2-18.7%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.7%3-13.9%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 50.5% 1.98 -9.7%

Draw 28.0% 28.2% 3.55 -0.4%

Away win 26.4% 28.2% 3.55 -3.8%

Over 2.5 47.6% 57.1% 1.75 -16.7%

Over 3.5 22.3% 35.1% 2.85 -21.9%

BTTS 51.6% 61.7% 1.62 -16.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.6%

H 46% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 9.0%

#3 1–0 12.1%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 2–0✓ 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nacional1.3

Guimaraes1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NACIONAL · PPG 1.06

GUIMARAES · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

59%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Nacional (H) 45.6%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV -9.7%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -0.4%

Guimaraes (A) 26.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nacional face Guimaraes in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nacional a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Guimaraes 26%, so Nacional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Nacional and 1.1 for Guimaraes (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nacional are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 0.88 for Guimaraes. This match finished 2-0.

Nacional vs Guimaraes Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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