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Portugal - Primeira Liga Saturday, May 16, 2026 17:00 
Nacional PPG 1.06 
Guimaraes PPG 0.88
Portugal - Primeira Liga Saturday, May 16, 2026 17:00 Nacional PPG 1.062-0 HIT CS5
Guimaraes PPG 0.88Draw· -0.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 47.6% Odds: 1.75 -16.7%
Over 3.5 22.3% Odds: 2.85 -21.9%
BTTS 51.6% Odds: 1.62 -16.4%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 0-0 ✘
3rd 1-0 ✘
4th 2-1 ✘
5th 2-0 ✔
Expected Goals (xG)
Nacional 1.35
Guimaraes 1.06
Model Suggestion
BTTS -16.4% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -16.4% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
League Track Record ↗
Based on 47 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 47%
O2.5/Under 57%
BTTS/No 47%
Score Hit 49%
ROI -4.3%
Bet Hit 50% (18 bets)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
BALANCED 42%
Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away POOR (0.88)