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Sporting CP vs Gil Vicente Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 19:30

Sporting CP

PPG 2.38 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Gil Vicente

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-14.5%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.9%1-19.4%1-23.7%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.7%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.5%3-16.7%3-22.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-15.6%4+-22.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.4% 82.0% 1.22 -27.5%

Draw 22.7% 16.9% 5.90 +20.4%

Away win 17.9% 8.0% 12.50 +74.3%

Over 2.5 54.9% 69.0% 1.45 -20.4%

Over 3.5 32.0% 46.5% 2.15 -31.2%

BTTS 51.6% 52.6% 1.90 -2.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -23.2%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 59% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.3%

#2 1–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 3–0✓ 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting CP2.1

Gil Vicente0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING CP · PPG 2.38

GIL VICENTE · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs P(Home)=59.4%

Win probability 1X2

Sporting CP (H) 59.4%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -27.5%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV +20.4%

Gil Vicente (A) 17.9%

ODDS 12.50 · IMPLIED 8.0% EV +74.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting CP face Gil Vicente in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting CP a 59% chance, the draw 23% and Gil Vicente 18%, so Sporting CP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Sporting CP and 0.8 for Gil Vicente (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting CP are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.25 for Gil Vicente. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +74.3%. This match finished 3-0.

Sporting CP vs Gil Vicente Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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