Arouca vs Tondela Prediction & Tips

Portugal - Primeira Liga Regular Season - 34 Estádio Municipal de Arouca· Arouca Saturday, May 16, 2026 17:00

Arouca PPG 1.38

3-1 MISS

Tondela PPG 0.94

Home· +54.3% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52% confidence

Home 50.6%

Odds: 3.05 EV: +54.3%

Draw 25.3%

Odds: 3.55 EV: -6.1%

Away 24.1%

Odds: 2.18 EV: -28.5%

Model lean: BTTS

Result: Home ✔

Over 2.5 52.6% Odds: 1.83 -3.7%

Over 3.5 29.3% Odds: 3.10 -5.5%

BTTS 53.3% Odds: 1.67 -11.0%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Arouca

1.64

Tondela

1.09

Model SuggestionBTTS -11.0% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away POOR (0.94)