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Arouca vs Tondela Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 17:00

Arouca

PPG 1.38 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Tondela

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-17.1%0-23.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.7%1-111.7%1-26.4%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.6%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.8%3-15.2%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.1%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% 32.8% 3.05 +54.3%

Draw 25.3% 28.2% 3.55 -6.1%

Away win 24.1% 45.9% 2.18 -28.5%

Over 2.5 52.6% 54.6% 1.83 -3.7%

Over 3.5 29.3% 32.3% 3.10 -5.5%

BTTS 53.3% 59.9% 1.67 -11.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -23.2%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.3%

H 51% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 2–0 8.7%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arouca1.6

Tondela1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AROUCA · PPG 1.38

TONDELA · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Arouca (H) 50.6%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +54.3%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -6.1%

Tondela (A) 24.1%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -28.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arouca face Tondela in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arouca a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Tondela 24%, so Arouca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Arouca and 1.1 for Tondela (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arouca are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.94 for Tondela. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +54.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Arouca vs Tondela Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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