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Casa Pia vs Rio Ave Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 17:00

Casa Pia

PPG 0.88 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Rio Ave

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-110.4%0-26.2%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.8%1-112.9%1-27.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.7%2-18.1%2-24.9%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.8%3-13.4%3-22.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.4%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 62.5% 1.60 -41.0%

Draw 27.7% 24.4% 4.10 +8.1%

Away win 35.4% 20.0% 5.00 +77.0%

Over 2.5 47.6% 55.6% 1.80 -14.3%

Over 3.5 23.2% 33.3% 3.00 -18.2%

BTTS 51.6% 56.5% 1.77 -8.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 17%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob51.6%

H 37% / xG 1.2-1.2 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Casa Pia1.3

Rio Ave1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CASA PIA · PPG 0.88

RIO AVE · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

Chance this pick lands

55%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.88) vs Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Casa Pia (H) 36.9%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -41.0%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +8.1%

Rio Ave (A) 35.4%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +77.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Casa Pia face Rio Ave in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Casa Pia a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Rio Ave 35%, so Casa Pia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Casa Pia and 1.2 for Rio Ave (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Casa Pia are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 1.25 for Rio Ave. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +77.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Casa Pia vs Rio Ave Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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