Casa Pia vs Rio Ave Prediction & Tips

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Portugal - Primeira Liga Regular Season - 34 Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior· Rio Maior Saturday, May 16, 2026 17:00

Casa Pia PPG 0.88

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

Rio Ave PPG 1.25

Away· +77.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 36.9%

Odds: 1.60 EV: -41.0%

Draw 27.7%

Odds: 4.10 EV: +8.1%

Away 35.4%

Odds: 5.00 EV: +77.0%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 47.6% Odds: 1.80 -14.3%

Over 3.5 23.2% Odds: 3.00 -18.2%

BTTS 51.6% Odds: 1.77 -8.7%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Casa Pia

1.25

Rio Ave

1.20

Model SuggestionBTTS -8.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -8.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+77.0%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.88) vs Away AVERAGE (1.25)