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Sivasspor vs Istanbulspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Monday, April 13, 2026

Sivasspor

PPG 1.65 · HOME

UPCOMING

Istanbulspor

PPG 1.24 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-17.4%0-22.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.4%1-111.6%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.1%2-19.1%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.3%3-14.7%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-12.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.8% 58.8% 1.70 -3.4%

Draw 25.3% 27.4% 3.65 -7.7%

Away win 17.9% 23.8% 4.20 -24.8%

Over 2.5 40.9% 60.6% 1.65 -32.5%

Over 3.5 20.5% 38.5% 2.60 -46.7%

BTTS 41.8% 63.7% 1.57 -34.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -9.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob41.8%

H 57% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.4%

#2 2–0 12.1%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 0–0 9.8%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sivasspor1.6

Istanbulspor0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SIVASSPOR · PPG 1.65

ISTANBULSPOR · PPG 1.24

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.65) > Away AVERAGE (1.24)

Win probability 1X2

Sivasspor (H) 56.8%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -3.4%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -7.7%

Istanbulspor (A) 17.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -24.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sivasspor face Istanbulspor in Turkey - 1. Lig on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sivasspor a 57% chance, the draw 25% and Istanbulspor 18%, so Sivasspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sivasspor and 0.8 for Istanbulspor (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sivasspor are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 1.24 for Istanbulspor.

Sivasspor vs Istanbulspor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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