Manchester Utd face Leeds Utd in England - Premier League on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manchester Utd a 74% chance, the draw 15% and Leeds Utd 11%, so Manchester Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Manchester Utd and 1.0 for Leeds Utd (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manchester Utd are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.67 for Leeds Utd. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +44.7%.
Based on 57 resolved predictions
Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.20), Away POOR (0.67) - Strong consensus