Today / England - Premier League / Manchester Utd vs Leeds Utd

Manchester Utd vs Leeds Utd Prediction— England - Premier League

Monday, April 13, 2026

Manchester Utd

PPG 2.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Leeds Utd

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 74.0% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a clear edge.

+14.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-12.2%0-21.2%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.0%1-16.2%1-23.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.4%2-18.7%2-24.5%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.9%3-18.2%3-24.3%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-010.9%4+-111.4%4+-25.9%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.0% 64.5% 1.55 +14.7%

Draw 14.7% 24.4% 4.10 -39.7%

Away win 11.3% 17.9% 5.60 -36.7%

Over 2.5 73.9% 59.9% 1.67 +23.4%

Over 3.5 53.6% 37.0% 2.70 +44.7%

BTTS 60.7% 57.8% 1.73 +5.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 78%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.7%

H 74% / xG 2.8-1.0 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.7%

#2 2–0 8.4%

#3 3–1 8.2%

#4 3–0 7.9%

#5 1–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manchester Utd2.8

Leeds Utd1.0

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.9% · O3.5 PROB 53.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MANCHESTER UTD · PPG 2.20

LEEDS UTD · PPG 0.67

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.20), Away POOR (0.67) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Manchester Utd (H) 74.0%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV +14.7%

Draw 14.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -39.7%

Leeds Utd (A) 11.3%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV -36.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manchester Utd face Leeds Utd in England - Premier League on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manchester Utd a 74% chance, the draw 15% and Leeds Utd 11%, so Manchester Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Manchester Utd and 1.0 for Leeds Utd (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manchester Utd are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.67 for Leeds Utd. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +44.7%.

Manchester Utd vs Leeds Utd Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - Premier League Predictions