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Tottenham vs Everton Prediction— England - Premier League

Regular Season - 38 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 15:00

Tottenham

PPG 0.67 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Everton

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-19.9%0-26.8%0-33.1%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.0%1-112.4%1-28.6%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.7%2-17.8%2-25.4%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.4%3-13.3%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 53.5% 1.87 -32.9%

Draw 27.2% 27.8% 3.60 -1.3%

Away win 36.9% 25.3% 3.95 +45.8%

Over 2.5 52.6% 57.1% 1.75 -8.0%

Over 3.5 27.1% 35.7% 2.80 -14.5%

BTTS 53.2% 61.7% 1.62 -13.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob53.2%

A 37% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.2%

#3 1–2 8.6%

#4 0–1 9.9%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tottenham1.3

Everton1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TOTTENHAM · PPG 0.67

EVERTON · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.44) vs Home POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Tottenham (H) 35.9%

ODDS 1.87 · IMPLIED 53.5% EV -32.9%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -1.3%

Everton (A) 36.9%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +45.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tottenham face Everton in England - Premier League on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tottenham a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Everton 37%, so Everton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Tottenham and 1.4 for Everton (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tottenham are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.44 for Everton. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +45.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Tottenham vs Everton Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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