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Sunderland vs Chelsea Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 38 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 15:00

Sunderland

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Chelsea

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-110.2%0-26.8%0-33.0%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.5%1-112.6%1-28.4%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.9%2-17.8%2-25.2%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.4%3-13.2%3-22.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 28.6% 3.50 +25.7%

Draw 27.3% 27.8% 3.60 -1.0%

Away win 36.8% 50.8% 1.97 -27.5%

Over 2.5 49.1% 57.8% 1.73 -15.1%

Over 3.5 25.7% 35.7% 2.80 -16.8%

BTTS 52.6% 61.7% 1.62 -14.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.6%

A 37% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.7%

#3 1–2 8.4%

#4 0–1 10.2%

#5 2–1✓ 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sunderland1.2

Chelsea1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.1% · O3.5 PROB 25.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SUNDERLAND · PPG 1.67

CHELSEA · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

Chance this pick lands

59%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Sunderland (H) 35.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +25.7%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -1.0%

Chelsea (A) 36.8%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -27.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sunderland face Chelsea in England - Premier League on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sunderland a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Chelsea 37%, so Chelsea are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Sunderland and 1.3 for Chelsea (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sunderland are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.44 for Chelsea. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +25.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Sunderland vs Chelsea Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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