Today / England - Premier League / Liverpool vs Brentford

Liverpool vs Brentford Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 38 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 15:00

Liverpool

PPG 1.94 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Brentford

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 66% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-15.8%0-23.6%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.4%1-110.6%1-26.6%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.6%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.6%3-15.8%3-23.7%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-14.0%4+-22.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.6% 53.5% 1.87 -3.5%

Draw 24.1% 23.8% 4.20 +0.7%

Away win 24.3% 29.4% 3.40 -10.4%

Over 2.5 59.8% 69.0% 1.45 -13.3%

Over 3.5 37.0% 46.5% 2.15 -20.4%

BTTS 59.7% 69.0% 1.45 -13.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 1–0 8.4%

#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Liverpool1.8

Brentford1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LIVERPOOL · PPG 1.94

BRENTFORD · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.94) vs P(Home)=51.6%

Win probability 1X2

Liverpool (H) 51.6%

ODDS 1.87 · IMPLIED 53.5% EV -3.5%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +0.7%

Brentford (A) 24.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Liverpool face Brentford in England - Premier League on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Liverpool a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Brentford 24%, so Liverpool are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Liverpool and 1.3 for Brentford (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Liverpool are averaging 1.94 points per game versus 1.11 for Brentford. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Liverpool vs Brentford Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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