Today / England - Premier League / West Ham Utd vs Leeds Utd

West Ham Utd vs Leeds Utd Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 38 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 15:00

West Ham Utd

PPG 1.06 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Leeds Utd

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-18.2%0-26.0%0-33.0%0-4+1.5%1 1-07.9%1-111.6%1-28.5%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.6%2-18.2%2-26.0%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.6%3-13.9%3-22.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% 58.1% 1.72 -36.9%

Draw 26.1% 25.6% 3.90 +1.1%

Away win 37.3% 23.3% 4.30 +60.4%

Over 2.5 59.1% 61.7% 1.62 -4.3%

Over 3.5 32.7% 39.2% 2.55 -16.6%

BTTS 59.7% 61.7% 1.62 -3.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.7%

A 37% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 0–0 5.6%

#5 0–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

West Ham Utd1.4

Leeds Utd1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 32.7%

Form & verdict PPG

WEST HAM UTD · PPG 1.06

LEEDS UTD · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

Chance this pick lands

61%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

West Ham Utd (H) 36.7%

ODDS 1.72 · IMPLIED 58.1% EV -36.9%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +1.1%

Leeds Utd (A) 37.3%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +60.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

West Ham Utd face Leeds Utd in England - Premier League on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives West Ham Utd a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Leeds Utd 37%, so Leeds Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for West Ham Utd and 1.5 for Leeds Utd (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, West Ham Utd are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 0.83 for Leeds Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +60.4%. This match finished 3-0.

West Ham Utd vs Leeds Utd Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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