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Crystal Palace vs Arsenal Prediction— England - Premier League

Regular Season - 38 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 15:00

Crystal Palace

PPG 1.17 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Arsenal

PPG 1.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-115.6%0-212.0%0-36.2%0-4+3.4%1 1-07.6%1-111.7%1-29.0%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-02.8%2-14.4%2-23.4%2-31.7%2-4+0.9%3 3-00.7%3-11.1%3-20.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.3% 27.4% 3.65 -22.1%

Draw 27.0% 25.6% 3.90 +3.2%

Away win 55.7% 54.1% 1.85 +3.0%

Over 2.5 46.3% 59.9% 1.67 -22.7%

Over 3.5 19.9% 37.0% 2.70 -27.8%

BTTS 48.7% 61.7% 1.62 -21.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob48.7%

A 56% / xG 0.7-1.5 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.6%

#2 1–1 11.7%

#3 0–2 12.0%

#4 0–0 10.1%

#5 1–2✓ 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Crystal Palace0.7

Arsenal1.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CRYSTAL PALACE · PPG 1.17

ARSENAL · PPG 1.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.94) vs Home AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Crystal Palace (H) 17.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -22.1%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +3.2%

Arsenal (A) 55.7%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Crystal Palace face Arsenal in England - Premier League on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Crystal Palace a 17% chance, the draw 27% and Arsenal 56%, so Arsenal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Crystal Palace and 1.5 for Arsenal (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Crystal Palace are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.94 for Arsenal. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Crystal Palace vs Arsenal Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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