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Bournemouth vs Manchester City Prediction— England - Premier League

Regular Season - 37 ·Tuesday, May 19, 2026, 18:30

Bournemouth

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Manchester City

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-19.7%0-28.1%0-34.5%0-4+2.8%1 1-06.8%1-111.4%1-29.5%1-35.3%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.0%2-16.7%2-25.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.6%3-12.6%3-22.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.3% 23.1% 4.33 +13.5%

Draw 26.4% 23.8% 4.20 +6.5%

Away win 45.3% 60.2% 1.66 -24.8%

Over 2.5 53.4% 69.4% 1.44 -23.1%

Over 3.5 31.8% 47.6% 2.10 -33.2%

BTTS 54.6% 69.0% 1.45 -20.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob54.6%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.4%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 8.1%

#4 0–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bournemouth1.2

Manchester City1.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BOURNEMOUTH · PPG 1.67

MANCHESTER CITY · PPG 1.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.78)

Win probability 1X2

Bournemouth (H) 28.3%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +13.5%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +6.5%

Manchester City (A) 45.3%

ODDS 1.66 · IMPLIED 60.2% EV -24.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bournemouth face Manchester City in England - Premier League on Tuesday, May 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bournemouth a 28% chance, the draw 26% and Manchester City 45%, so Manchester City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Bournemouth and 1.7 for Manchester City (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bournemouth are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.78 for Manchester City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Bournemouth vs Manchester City Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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