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Brighton vs Manchester Utd Prediction— England - Premier League

Regular Season - 38 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 15:00

Brighton

PPG 1.83 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Manchester Utd

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.7%0-25.0%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.0%1-111.7%1-27.7%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.9%2-19.0%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.5%3-14.6%3-23.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.5%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 55.9% 1.79 -19.4%

Draw 26.0% 25.0% 4.00 +2.4%

Away win 29.0% 26.3% 3.80 +6.1%

Over 2.5 52.6% 67.6% 1.48 -22.1%

Over 3.5 31.6% 46.5% 2.15 -32.1%

BTTS 59.1% 69.0% 1.45 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.1%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 0–0 5.9%

#5 1–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brighton1.5

Manchester Utd1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BRIGHTON · PPG 1.83

MANCHESTER UTD · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.83) > Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Brighton (H) 45.0%

ODDS 1.79 · IMPLIED 55.9% EV -19.4%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +2.4%

Manchester Utd (A) 29.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +6.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brighton face Manchester Utd in England - Premier League on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brighton a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Manchester Utd 29%, so Brighton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Brighton and 1.3 for Manchester Utd (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brighton are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.44 for Manchester Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.1%. This match finished 0-3.

Brighton vs Manchester Utd Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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