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Fulham vs Newcastle Utd Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 38 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 15:00

Fulham

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Newcastle Utd

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-18.8%0-25.2%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.4%1-112.4%1-27.4%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.4%2-18.8%2-25.2%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.5%3-14.2%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 35.7% 2.80 +27.7%

Draw 27.8% 27.8% 3.60 +0.1%

Away win 26.7% 43.5% 2.30 -23.2%

Over 2.5 52.6% 62.5% 1.60 -15.8%

Over 3.5 26.6% 40.0% 2.50 -20.1%

BTTS 52.6% 66.7% 1.50 -21.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 80 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -16.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.6%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.4%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 2–0✓ 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fulham1.4

Newcastle Utd1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 26.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FULHAM · PPG 1.78

NEWCASTLE UTD · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

60%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.78) vs P(Home)=45.6%

Win probability 1X2

Fulham (H) 45.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +27.7%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +0.1%

Newcastle Utd (A) 26.7%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -23.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fulham face Newcastle Utd in England - Premier League on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fulham a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Newcastle Utd 27%, so Fulham are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Fulham and 1.2 for Newcastle Utd (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fulham are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 0.94 for Newcastle Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +27.7%. This match finished 2-0.

Fulham vs Newcastle Utd Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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