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England - Premier League Sunday, May 24, 2026 15:00 
Fulham PPG 1.78 
Newcastle Utd PPG 0.94
England - Premier League Sunday, May 24, 2026 15:00 Fulham PPG 1.782-0 HIT CS5
Newcastle Utd PPG 0.94Home· +27.7% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
66% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 52.6% Odds: 1.60 -15.8%
Over 3.5 26.6% Odds: 2.50 -20.1%
BTTS 52.6% Odds: 1.50 -21.1%
O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 0-0 ✘
3rd 2-1 ✘
4th 1-0 ✘
5th 2-0 ✔
Expected Goals (xG)
Fulham 1.42
Newcastle Utd 1.19
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5 -15.8% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -15.8% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Home (+27.7%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Home (+27.7%) — probability too low to qualify.
League Track Record ↗
Based on 57 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 47%
O2.5/Under 44%
BTTS/No 60%
Score Hit 44%
ROI -9.4%
Bet Hit 55% (11 bets)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 66%
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.78) vs P(Home)=45.6%