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Manchester City vs Aston Villa Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 38 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 15:00

Manchester City

PPG 2.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Aston Villa

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 72% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-14.7%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.6%1-19.6%1-24.3%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.0%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.5%3-16.8%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-15.6%4+-22.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 77.5% 1.29 -31.4%

Draw 24.7% 16.1% 6.20 +31.9%

Away win 22.1% 13.0% 7.70 +42.1%

Over 2.5 59.1% 78.1% 1.28 -24.3%

Over 3.5 34.5% 58.8% 1.70 -41.3%

BTTS 52.6% 65.4% 1.53 -19.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.6%

H 53% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–0 11.0%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manchester City2.1

Aston Villa0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 34.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MANCHESTER CITY · PPG 2.50

ASTON VILLA · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

72%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=53.2%

Win probability 1X2

Manchester City (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.29 · IMPLIED 77.5% EV -31.4%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +31.9%

Aston Villa (A) 22.1%

ODDS 7.70 · IMPLIED 13.0% EV +42.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manchester City face Aston Villa in England - Premier League on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manchester City a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Aston Villa 22%, so Manchester City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Manchester City and 0.9 for Aston Villa (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manchester City are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.33 for Aston Villa. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +42.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Manchester City vs Aston Villa Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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