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England - Premier League Sunday, May 24, 2026 15:00 
Manchester City PPG 2.50 
Aston Villa PPG 1.33
England - Premier League Sunday, May 24, 2026 15:00 Manchester City PPG 2.501-2 MISS
Aston Villa PPG 1.33Away· +42.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Away
✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 59.1% Odds: 1.28 -24.3%
Over 3.5 34.5% Odds: 1.70 -41.3%
BTTS 52.6% Odds: 1.53 -19.5%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 2-0 ✘
3rd 2-1 ✘
4th 1-0 ✘
5th 3-0 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Manchester City 2.06
Aston Villa 0.90
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5 -24.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -24.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+42.1%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Away (+42.1%) — probability too low to qualify.
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 55%
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=53.2%