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Nottm Forest vs Bournemouth Prediction— England - Premier League

Regular Season - 38 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 15:00

Nottm Forest

PPG 1.06 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Bournemouth

PPG 1.39 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 58.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-18.4%0-25.8%0-32.7%0-4+1.3%1 1-08.5%1-111.9%1-28.3%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.0%2-18.4%2-25.9%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.9%3-14.0%3-22.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.9%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 30.3% 3.30 +21.4%

Draw 26.0% 26.7% 3.75 -1.5%

Away win 37.2% 50.0% 2.00 -25.6%

Over 2.5 52.6% 63.7% 1.57 -17.4%

Over 3.5 31.1% 41.7% 2.40 -25.4%

BTTS 58.6% 66.7% 1.50 -12.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.6%

H 37% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.9%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 0–0 6.0%

#5 1–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nottm Forest1.4

Bournemouth1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NOTTM FOREST · PPG 1.06

BOURNEMOUTH · PPG 1.39

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.06) vs Away AVERAGE (1.39)

Win probability 1X2

Nottm Forest (H) 36.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +21.4%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -1.5%

Bournemouth (A) 37.2%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -25.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nottm Forest face Bournemouth in England - Premier League on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nottm Forest a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Bournemouth 37%, so Bournemouth are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Nottm Forest and 1.4 for Bournemouth (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nottm Forest are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.39 for Bournemouth. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +21.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Nottm Forest vs Bournemouth Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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