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Rodez Aveyron vs Troyes Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Monday, April 13, 2026

Rodez Aveyron

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Troyes

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.4% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-19.7%0-26.8%0-33.2%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.7%1-112.3%1-28.7%1-34.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.5%2-17.8%2-25.5%2-32.6%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.3%3-13.3%3-22.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.4%4+-21.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.7% 28.2% 3.55 +19.6%

Draw 25.8% 28.6% 3.50 -9.7%

Away win 40.5% 50.0% 2.00 -19.0%

Over 2.5 50.2% 59.9% 1.67 -16.2%

Over 3.5 28.2% 37.7% 2.65 -25.3%

BTTS 54.4% 64.5% 1.55 -15.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 24.9%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.4%

A 40% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–1 9.7%

#3 1–0 8.7%

#4 1–2 8.7%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rodez Aveyron1.3

Troyes1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

RODEZ AVEYRON · PPG 1.57

TROYES · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.57), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Rodez Aveyron (H) 33.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +19.6%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.7%

Troyes (A) 40.5%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -19.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rodez Aveyron face Troyes in France - Ligue 2 on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rodez Aveyron a 34% chance, the draw 26% and Troyes 41%, so Troyes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Rodez Aveyron and 1.4 for Troyes (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rodez Aveyron are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.50 for Troyes. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +19.6%.

Rodez Aveyron vs Troyes Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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