Today / France - Ligue 2 / Clermont vs Guingamp

Clermont vs Guingamp Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 18:00

Clermont

PPG 1.13 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Guingamp

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-110.0%0-25.8%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.2%1-112.9%1-27.4%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.2%2-18.3%2-24.8%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.1%3-13.6%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.5% 34.7% 2.88 +13.8%

Draw 28.7% 27.4% 3.65 +2.9%

Away win 31.8% 44.4% 2.25 -28.4%

Over 2.5 46.5% 58.8% 1.70 -20.9%

Over 3.5 23.0% 35.7% 2.80 -21.4%

BTTS 52.3% 63.7% 1.57 -17.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 24.9%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.3%

D 29% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.7%

#3 1–0✓ 11.2%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 0–1 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Clermont1.3

Guingamp1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CLERMONT · PPG 1.13

GUINGAMP · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Clermont (H) 39.5%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +13.8%

Draw 28.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +2.9%

Guingamp (A) 31.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -28.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Clermont face Guingamp in France - Ligue 2 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Clermont a 40% chance, the draw 29% and Guingamp 32%, so Clermont are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Clermont and 1.2 for Guingamp (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Clermont are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.06 for Guingamp. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Clermont vs Guingamp Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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