Today / France - Ligue 2 / Reims vs Pau FC

Reims vs Pau FC Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 18:00

Reims

PPG 1.81 · HOME

5 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Pau FC

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-16.3%0-23.0%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.7%1-111.1%1-25.3%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.8%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.1%3-15.8%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-13.8%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.4% 75.2% 1.33 -33.0%

Draw 26.1% 20.0% 5.00 +18.3%

Away win 23.5% 11.1% 9.00 +66.9%

Over 2.5 53.1% 66.7% 1.50 -20.3%

Over 3.5 28.9% 44.4% 2.25 -21.0%

BTTS 53.4% 57.8% 1.73 -7.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 24.9%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.4%

H 50% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–0 10.3%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Reims1.8

Pau FC0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

REIMS · PPG 1.81

PAU FC · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.81), Away GOOD (1.56)

Win probability 1X2

Reims (H) 50.4%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -33.0%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +18.3%

Pau FC (A) 23.5%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +66.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Reims face Pau FC in France - Ligue 2 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Reims a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Pau FC 24%, so Reims are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Reims and 0.9 for Pau FC (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Reims are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.56 for Pau FC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +66.9%. This match finished 5-3.

Reims vs Pau FC Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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