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SC Bastia vs Le Mans Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 18:00

SC Bastia

PPG 0.88 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWL

UPCOMING

Le Mans

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.9%0-117.8%0-210.6%0-34.2%0-4+1.6%1 1-010.6%1-112.6%1-27.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-03.8%2-14.5%2-22.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-00.9%3-11.1%3-20.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.9% 33.3% 3.00 -15.2%

Draw 30.7% 30.3% 3.30 +1.3%

Away win 44.3% 42.9% 2.33 +3.2%

Over 2.5 35.1% 50.0% 2.00 -29.8%

Over 3.5 12.6% 27.8% 3.60 -32.8%

BTTS 48.2% 57.1% 1.75 -15.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 13.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.2%

A 44% / xG 0.7-1.2 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.9%

#2 0–1 17.8%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 0–2 10.6%

#5 1–0 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SC Bastia0.7

Le Mans1.2

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 12.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SC BASTIA · PPG 0.88

LE MANS · PPG 1.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

48%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.63) vs Home POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

SC Bastia (H) 24.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -15.2%

Draw 30.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +1.3%

Le Mans (A) 44.3%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV +3.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

SC Bastia face Le Mans in France - Ligue 2 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SC Bastia a 25% chance, the draw 31% and Le Mans 44%, so Le Mans are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for SC Bastia and 1.2 for Le Mans (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SC Bastia are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 1.63 for Le Mans. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.2%.

SC Bastia vs Le Mans Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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