Amiens vs Red Star Prediction— France - Ligue 2

France - Ligue 2 Regular Season - 33 Stade de la Licorne· Amiens Saturday, May 2, 2026 18:00

Amiens PPG 0.56

1-3 MISS

Red Star PPG 1.60

Draw· +12.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Amiens face Red Star in France - Ligue 2 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Amiens a 26% chance, the draw 29% and Red Star 45%, so Red Star are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Amiens and 1.5 for Red Star (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Amiens are averaging 0.56 points per game versus 1.60 for Red Star. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +12.8%. This match finished 1-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 25.9%

Odds: 4.33 EV: +12.2%

Draw 29.3%

Odds: 3.85 EV: +12.8%

Away 44.8%

Odds: 1.73 EV: -22.5%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 48.6% Odds: 1.77 -14.0%

Over 3.5 26.8% Odds: 2.95 -20.9%

BTTS 54.0% Odds: 1.70 -8.2%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 0-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Amiens

1.10

Red Star

1.51

Model SuggestionBTTS -8.2% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -8.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+12.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5/Under 66%

BTTS/No 60%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 46% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.60) vs Home POOR (0.56)