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Amiens vs Red Star Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 18:00

Amiens

PPG 0.56 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Red Star

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 54.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-111.0%0-28.4%0-34.2%0-4+2.2%1 1-08.1%1-112.2%1-29.2%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.4%2-16.7%2-25.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.6%3-12.5%3-21.9%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.9% 23.1% 4.33 +12.2%

Draw 29.3% 26.0% 3.85 +12.8%

Away win 44.8% 57.8% 1.73 -22.5%

Over 2.5 48.6% 56.5% 1.77 -14.0%

Over 3.5 26.8% 33.9% 2.95 -20.9%

BTTS 54.0% 58.8% 1.70 -8.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 13.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.0%

A 45% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–1 11.0%

#4 0–0 7.3%

#5 0–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Amiens1.1

Red Star1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.6% · O3.5 PROB 26.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AMIENS · PPG 0.56

RED STAR · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

57%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.60) vs Home POOR (0.56)

Win probability 1X2

Amiens (H) 25.9%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +12.2%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +12.8%

Red Star (A) 44.8%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -22.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Amiens face Red Star in France - Ligue 2 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Amiens a 26% chance, the draw 29% and Red Star 45%, so Red Star are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Amiens and 1.5 for Red Star (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Amiens are averaging 0.56 points per game versus 1.60 for Red Star. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +12.8%. This match finished 1-3.

Amiens vs Red Star Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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