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Red Star vs Montpellier Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 18:00

Red Star

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Montpellier

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 50.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-18.6%0-23.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.3%1-112.3%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.9%2-18.8%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.2%3-14.2%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.8% 54.1% 1.85 -9.7%

Draw 26.4% 29.4% 3.40 -6.1%

Away win 24.8% 25.6% 3.90 -2.0%

Over 2.5 45.8% 57.8% 1.73 -20.8%

Over 3.5 18.8% 36.4% 2.75 -29.0%

BTTS 50.7% 57.8% 1.73 -12.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 13.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.7%

H 49% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.3%

#2 1–0 15.3%

#3 0–0 10.7%

#4 2–0 10.9%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Red Star1.4

Montpellier0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.8%

Form & verdict PPG

RED STAR · PPG 1.69

MONTPELLIER · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

56%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.69) > Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Red Star (H) 48.8%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -9.7%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -6.1%

Montpellier (A) 24.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -2.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Red Star face Montpellier in France - Ligue 2 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Red Star a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Montpellier 25%, so Red Star are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Red Star and 0.8 for Montpellier (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Red Star are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.38 for Montpellier. This match finished 1-1.

Red Star vs Montpellier Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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