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Saint-Etienne vs Amiens Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 18:00

Saint-Etienne

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDL

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Amiens

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 71% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.0% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-14.3%0-22.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.7%1-19.2%1-24.4%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.5%3-17.1%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-16.3%4+-23.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.1% 87.0% 1.15 -40.1%

Draw 25.3% 13.9% 7.20 +49.3%

Away win 22.6% 6.3% 16.00 +157.0%

Over 2.5 60.0% 75.2% 1.33 -20.2%

Over 3.5 37.4% 54.6% 1.83 -31.6%

BTTS 54.6% 52.4% 1.91 +4.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 13.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 52% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–0 10.4%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 3–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Saint-Etienne2.1

Amiens0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.0% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SAINT-ETIENNE · PPG 2.00

AMIENS · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

71%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=52.1%

Win probability 1X2

Saint-Etienne (H) 52.1%

ODDS 1.15 · IMPLIED 87.0% EV -40.1%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 7.20 · IMPLIED 13.9% EV +49.3%

Amiens (A) 22.6%

ODDS 16.00 · IMPLIED 6.3% EV +157.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Saint-Etienne face Amiens in France - Ligue 2 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Saint-Etienne a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Amiens 23%, so Saint-Etienne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Saint-Etienne and 0.9 for Amiens (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Saint-Etienne are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.94 for Amiens. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +157.0%. This match finished 5-0.

Saint-Etienne vs Amiens Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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