Today / France - Ligue 2 / Nancy vs USL Dunkerque

Nancy vs USL Dunkerque Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 18:00

Nancy

PPG 0.94 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

USL Dunkerque

PPG 1.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-111.9%0-29.3%0-34.8%0-4+2.7%1 1-07.7%1-112.0%1-29.4%1-34.9%1-4+2.7%2 2-03.9%2-16.1%2-24.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.3%3-12.1%3-21.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.6% 37.7% 2.65 -16.1%

Draw 27.0% 29.4% 3.40 -4.9%

Away win 45.4% 40.0% 2.50 +13.5%

Over 2.5 50.5% 57.1% 1.75 -11.6%

Over 3.5 25.9% 35.7% 2.80 -16.5%

BTTS 52.8% 63.7% 1.57 -17.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 13.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob52.8%

A 45% / xG 1.0-1.6 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 0–1 11.9%

#3 1–2 9.4%

#4 0–0 7.6%

#5 0–2 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nancy1.0

USL Dunkerque1.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NANCY · PPG 0.94

USL DUNKERQUE · PPG 1.31

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

Chance this pick lands

60%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.94) vs Away AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Nancy (H) 27.6%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -16.1%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.9%

USL Dunkerque (A) 45.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nancy face USL Dunkerque in France - Ligue 2 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nancy a 28% chance, the draw 27% and USL Dunkerque 45%, so USL Dunkerque are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Nancy and 1.6 for USL Dunkerque (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nancy are averaging 0.94 points per game versus 1.31 for USL Dunkerque. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.5%. This match finished 3-2.

Nancy vs USL Dunkerque Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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