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Grenoble vs Troyes Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 18:00

Grenoble

PPG 1.38 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Troyes

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-115.9%0-29.9%0-34.1%0-4+1.7%1 1-010.4%1-112.9%1-28.0%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-04.2%2-15.3%2-23.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.1%3-11.4%3-20.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.4% 26.7% 3.75 +1.7%

Draw 29.5% 26.7% 3.75 +6.4%

Away win 43.1% 54.1% 1.85 -20.3%

Over 2.5 45.8% 59.9% 1.67 -23.5%

Over 3.5 15.4% 37.0% 2.70 -35.0%

BTTS 48.2% 63.7% 1.57 -24.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 24.9%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.2%

A 43% / xG 0.8-1.2 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 0–1 15.9%

#4 0–2 9.9%

#5 1–0✓ 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grenoble0.8

Troyes1.2

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.8% · O3.5 PROB 15.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GRENOBLE · PPG 1.38

TROYES · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.38), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Grenoble (H) 27.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +1.7%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +6.4%

Troyes (A) 43.1%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -20.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grenoble face Troyes in France - Ligue 2 on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grenoble a 27% chance, the draw 30% and Troyes 43%, so Troyes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Grenoble and 1.2 for Troyes (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grenoble are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.50 for Troyes. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Grenoble vs Troyes Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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