Fiorentina vs Lazio Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Italy - Serie A Regular Season - 32 Stadio Artemio Franchi· Florence Monday, April 13, 2026 —

Fiorentina PPG 1.00

VS PENDING

Lazio PPG 1.20

Away· +15.2% ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Fiorentina face Lazio in Italy - Serie A on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fiorentina a 36% chance, the draw 29% and Lazio 35%, so Fiorentina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Fiorentina and 1.1 for Lazio (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fiorentina are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.20 for Lazio. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +15.2%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 36.4%

Odds: 2.26 EV: -17.7%

Draw 28.8%

Odds: 3.05 EV: -12.2%

Away 34.9%

Odds: 3.30 EV: +15.2%

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 38.9% Odds: 2.15 -16.4%

Over 3.5 19.0% Odds: 3.95 -24.9%

BTTS 45.5% Odds: 1.85 -15.8%

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1

2nd 1-0

3rd 0-1

4th 0-0

5th 2-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Fiorentina

1.14

Lazio

1.11

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5/Under 55%

BTTS/No 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -26.7%

Bet Hit 40% (10 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.20)