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Fiorentina vs Lazio Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 32 ·Monday, April 13, 2026

Fiorentina

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lazio

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-111.7%0-26.5%0-32.4%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.1%1-113.3%1-27.4%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.9%2-17.6%2-24.2%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.6%3-12.9%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 44.2% 2.26 -17.7%

Draw 28.8% 32.8% 3.05 -12.2%

Away win 34.9% 30.3% 3.30 +15.2%

Over 2.5 38.9% 46.5% 2.15 -16.4%

Over 3.5 19.0% 25.3% 3.95 -24.9%

BTTS 45.5% 54.1% 1.85 -15.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob45.5%

D 29% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 1–0 12.1%

#3 0–1 11.7%

#4 0–0 10.6%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fiorentina1.1

Lazio1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.9% · O3.5 PROB 19.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FIORENTINA · PPG 1.00

LAZIO · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Fiorentina (H) 36.4%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV -17.7%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -12.2%

Lazio (A) 34.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fiorentina face Lazio in Italy - Serie A on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fiorentina a 36% chance, the draw 29% and Lazio 35%, so Fiorentina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Fiorentina and 1.1 for Lazio (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fiorentina are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.20 for Lazio. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +15.2%.

Fiorentina vs Lazio Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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